Microsoft claims it sold one million Kinect units in 10 days. "We will continue to work with our retailer partners to keep pace with high demand," Don Mattrick, president of Microsoft's Interactive Entertainment Business, wrote in a Nov. 15 statement, "and deliver against our plan to sell more than five million Kinect sensors worldwide by the end of this year."

Kinect allows Xbox players to control their onscreen character through gestures, courtesy of a 3D camera that tracks 48 points of body movement. If those sales numbers prove accurate, it also means that Microsoft's bet on 3D sensing technology has paid off, at least in the short term. If Kinect manages to preserve that sales momentum, it could add years of life to the Xbox platform.

So for now, let's chalk Kinect as one in the "Win" column for Microsoft's holiday releases.

Meanwhile, there's a decided lack of hard data on Windows Phone 7 sales. Although TheStreet.com suggested around 40,000 devices sold since the smartphone platform's Nov. 8 release date (quoting "a market research source who tracks phone sales") I haven't seen any other numbers drifting around to either confirm or undermine that figure. Granted, if Microsoft and its carrier partners had managed to move several hundred thousand units on Day One, they likely would have issued a Kinect-style press release to trumpet that triumph; but the lack of official word doesn't necessarily mean the smartphones have crashed-and-burned in the marketplace.

In the meantime, it may take weeks for additional information to leak out, so for right now, let's chalk Windows Phone 7 in the "Maybe" column.

I'm also betting that Windows 7 PCs will continue to sell in solid numbers. Microsoft's revenues and earnings have recovered from last year's economic doldrums, and consumers seem more willing to open their wallets. But weaker-than-hoped Windows Phone 7 sales, along with Microsoft's continued lack of a viable tablet competitor, could weigh it down during the crucial holiday season.