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Verizon lockout dogging iPhone 4 sales more than antenna woes
The signal problems caused by the iPhone 4's antenna design generated a lot of press, but what affect did the issue have on sales? That's the question that Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster attempted to answer with a survey that he shared in a recent research note. His conclusion: the "antennagate" problem impacted potential sales as much as 20 percent, but that's nothing compared to sales lost because the iPhone is locked exclusively to AT&T.
The survey was conducted on 258 random cell phone users in Minneapolis. Though limiting responses from just one urban area means there could be some bias towards a particular carrier, the respondents were spread across the four major carriers. Among those surveyed, about 30 percent already used an iPhone, BlackBerry, or "other" phone, while about 10 percent used an Android phone.
Of those surveyed, 69 percent said they were aware of the problems with the iPhone 4 antenna design. That's not surprising given that the issue was widely publicized immediately after the device launched, eventually necessitating a special press conference from Apple to address the problem. However, only 20 percent of those aware of the problem said it negatively impacted their decision to buy one.
A bigger issue, noted Munster, is three times as many respondents brought up the issue that the iPhone isn't available on Verizon—without prompting from the surveyors. "The antenna issue is removing upside potential for iPhone units, but Verizon is actually the most significant factor limiting demand," he wrote.
Though the survey population is somewhat limited, this jibes with what we have heard in and around the Orbiting HQ. When people see me using my iPhone 4 in public, the most common question is, "What is the reception like? I heard the antenna is bad." After discussing the issue, however, the most common conclusion tends to be, "Yeah, I'll probably end up getting one anyway."
In a recent Ars reader poll about Verizon iPhone availability, more than half the respondents that are current AT&T iPhone users would switch to Verizon if the iPhone was available on that carrier. Nearly half the respondents were current Verizon customers that would get an iPhone if it were available. Clearly, breaking free of AT&T's exclusivity could tap a large potential market for new iPhone users.
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